Charlie memo · public-safe

Figure AI: deployment KPI, economics still missing

Figure is one of the clearest S4 humanoid evidence cases: BMW deployment KPI plus BotQ manufacturing KPI. It is not yet S5 because customer economics and repeat-order quality remain undisclosed.

Draft updated 2026-06-13. This page is a working surface for review before the final publishing flow.

BMW deployment KPI

Figure disclosed an 11-month Figure 02 deployment at BMW Spartanburg: 10-hour shifts Monday-Friday, 90,000+ parts loaded, 1,250+ runtime hours, and contribution to 30,000+ BMW X3 vehicles.

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BotQ manufacturing KPI

BotQ delivered 350+ Figure 03 robots, moved from 1 robot/day to 1 robot/hour, reached >80% end-of-line first-pass yield, 99.3% battery-line first-pass yield, and produced 9,000+ actuators.

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Catalyst expansion signal

Figure announced a commercial agreement with Catalyst Brands starting at the Reno, Nevada distribution logistics center; economics, robot count, and deployment KPI remain undisclosed.

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Missing S5 proof

Figure still lacks public contract value, robot count by customer, customer-confirmed ROI/payback, repeat-order terms, long-duration intervention rate, and gross margin.

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Core read

Figure 的公开证据已经超过普通 demo cycle:BMW 给出真实客户现场、运行时长、 任务产出和生产背景;BotQ 则给出制造节拍、良率和 actuator 产出。但这些仍然是 S4 deployment / manufacturing evidence,不是完整 unit economics。

What would upgrade it

需要 BMW、Catalyst 或其他客户披露 robot count、contract value、uptime、 intervention rate、ROI/payback、repeat order,或 Figure 把 BotQ production 明确连接到 contracted deployment、revenue、fleet utilization 和 margin。

Sources