Tesla Optimus production curve
Optimus moves from narrative to stronger evidence only when designed capacity converts into installed lines, actual output, accepted units, factory utilization, robot revenue or customer economics.
Fremont pilot-line build intent
Pilot production-line intent
Tesla said it remained on track for Optimus builds on the Fremont pilot production line in 2025 and wider internal factory deployment.
Does not yet prove: No output, robot count, production rate or customer economics disclosed.
S3/S4Production lines being installed
Line-installation evidence
Tesla disclosed first-generation Optimus production lines were being installed in anticipation of volume production.
Does not yet prove: Installation does not equal achieved volume production, utilization or accepted deliveries.
S4Gen 3 mass-production design
1M/year eventual planned capacity language
Tesla described Gen 3 as its first Optimus design meant for mass production, with first production-line preparation and supply-chain readiness.
Does not yet prove: Planned capacity is not yield, unit cost, field reliability or sell-through.
S4Designed-capacity disclosure
Fremont 1M/year; Texas long-term 10M/year designed capacity
Tesla Q1 2026 update disclosed Fremont first-generation line designed for 1M robots/year and a Texas second-generation line designed for long-term annual capacity of 10M robots.
Does not yet prove: Designed capacity is not current production, accepted units, customer orders, revenue or profitability.
Strong S4Update rule: Update when Tesla filings or primary Tesla disclosures add actual Optimus output, line status, deployed count, uptime/intervention, revenue, margin or designed-capacity changes.